Saturday, November 14, 2009

Lesson Seven and Eight

Caution: I just draft the stuffs that I remember in the lesson which are not included in the handout of the instructor, so hopefully I do not interpret and remember something incorrectly.

- bank and property > related> risk diversification effect is not obvious

- Beta measures systematic risk Vs S.D and varience measure total risk

-Beta> no direction ( negative/ positive) is indicated

-Beta = 1 > only market return, Beta = 0 > only risk-free return, Beta >1 High risk, Beta<1 low risk - the implications of huge audit fee > large scale/ high risk of the firm

- stock market > no one can win forever, no always winning rules orelse no one is willing to invest since there must be a loser

- dividend increase drive the stock price increases ( hkmtr> stable dividend> the mtr properties have not yet generated a large cash flow)

- HS bank's dividend (11)> attractive , bank industry> D/E ratio> meaningless

- HKMTR - government is the largest shareholder> help mtr develop> a measure to reduce traffic accident but it is kind of another way to tax the public

- property > dividend payout, ROE, Debt to equity ratio

- steps to pick stock > fundamental analysis ( for elimination) should be prior to technical analysis

- Relative strength ( RSI) if it is high( e.g. 100%) > overbuy> the stock price will drop soon Vs if it is low, oversell> the stock price will go up soon

-acquire property > look for high liquidity> large-scale property + good developers

-issuer issues options, investment bank issues warrants

-one likes to be called by using his name

- if the director of the company can hardly manage their family well, whatelse can he make?

-risk control> should not spend more than one-tenth of your wealth buying one stock/depositing in one bank

- From Investopedia: I think this is 逆按揭

What Does Reverse Mortgage Mean?
A type of mortgage in which a homeowner can borrow money against the value of his or her home. No repayment of the mortgage (principal or interest) is required until the borrower dies or the home is sold. After accounting for the initial mortgage amount, the rate at which interest accrues, the length of the loan and rate of home price appreciation, the transaction is structured so that the loan amount will not exceed the value of the home over the life of the loan.

Often, the lender will require that there can be no other liens against the home. Any existing liens must be paid off with the proceeds of the reverse mortgage.

Investopedia explains Reverse Mortgage
A reverse mortgage provides income that people can tap into for their retirement. The advantage of a reverse mortgage is that the borrower's credit is not relevant, and is often unchecked, because the borrower does not need to make any payments. Because the home serves as collateral, it must be sold in order to repay the mortgage when the borrower dies (in some cases, the heirs have the option of repaying the mortgage without selling the home). These types of mortgages have large origination costs relative to other types of mortgages. These costs become part of the initial loan balance and accrue interest. Senior citizen borrowers with good credit should carefully analyze the options of a more traditional mortgage, such as a home equity loan, against a reverse mortgage.

This one is much more inituitive


from http://the-sun.on.cc/channels/fina/20050128/20050128020437_0002.html

extra: http://www.elderlycommission.gov.hk/en/download/library/030430/c_mortgage_report.pdf

- Reference website:
http://www.centamap.com ( statistics from lands department)

http://www.hkdoctors.org/

http://www.censtatd.gov.hk

-Recommended books:

1) Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset,

2) Damodaran on Valuation: Security Analysis for Investment and Corporate Finance by Aswath Damodaran

3) A random walk down Wallstreet

4)Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications by John J. Murphy

5) Technical analysis explained: the Successful Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points by Martin Pring

6) The Last Governor: Chris & the Handover of Hong Kong by Jonathan Dimbleby

7) East and West: China, Power, and the Future of Asia by Christopher Patten


8) The Spirit to Serve Marriott's Way by Jw Marriott and Adrian Zackheim

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Only 2 more lessons to go :( ...

I definitely want to be taught by Simon again. I always believe that if the teacher is smart, the students can learn more and also be smart someday. Once again, I am always wondering when I can be as knowledgeable as him one day.

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